Tehran: In a dramatic turn of events, a ceasefire between Iran and Israel appeared to take hold early Monday, after nearly two weeks of escalating conflict that rattled the Middle East and global markets. Brokered informally with international support and announced publicly by President Donald Trump, the truce marked the most significant pause in hostilities since the outbreak of violence.
According to TRTworld.com, just before the ceasefire's original implementation deadline of 4 am Tehran time, Israel launched a final round of air strikes against Iranian positions in western Iran. And so, with both sides having exchanged one final round of fire, the guns fell silent-at least for now. Only a few hours earlier, and following the US attacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure using bunker-busting GBU-57 munitions launched by B-2 Spirit bombers, Iran launched a retaliatory missile strike late Sunday on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar-home to the largest US military installation in the region and the nerve centre of CENTCOM's command operations.
The Iranian attack, codenamed "News of Victory," was swift and sharply limited. Despite targeting a US base, it was not a cry for escalation; rather, it was a carefully calibrated message: a response without provoking war. Iran claims it fired 14 missiles, the same number reportedly used by the US in its attack on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz last week. Tehran asserts that three missiles successfully impacted the Qatari base, whereas Qatar's defense ministry reported only seven missiles were launched, with just one breaching air defenses.
What makes the attack all the more surprising is its geography. Qatar, sharing the world's largest natural gas field with Iran, is not just another Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) state-it is Iran's closest partner in the Arab world. Yet, in choosing to strike Al Udeid, Iran made a calculated bet that Qatar would interpret the gesture as a signal to Washington, not a threat to Doha. Iranian officials justified the attack by pointing to Al Udeid's centrality to US military operations in the Middle East, but the reality is more layered.
According to multiple regional sources, Iran likely provided backchannel notice of its intentions to Qatari officials, who facilitated the evacuation of US personnel. In this context, the base was the safest place for Iran to send a message with minimal risk of American casualties and without igniting full-scale war. President Trump seemed to confirm this calculation on social media, describing the attack as "very weak" and acknowledging Iran's early notice, expressing gratitude and calling for peace.
Diplomatic reactions were swift, with every Arab state in the Gulf condemning the attack, including Saudi Arabia, which expressed full support for any action Qatar may deem necessary. Qatar issued a rare public rebuke, condemning the attack on its sovereignty while subtly pointing the finger at Israel as the source of regional instability. Despite the tensions, Qatar positioned itself as a potential peacemaker, proposing a ceasefire plan between the two states, a move supported by GCC states.
The diplomatic overture quickly gained traction, and President Trump announced a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel, congratulating both governments for avoiding further bloodshed and declaring it a win for peace in the Middle East. However, Iran's response was cautious. Abbas Araghchi, Iran's top negotiator, stated on X that if Israel halts its attacks on Iranian targets by 4 am local time, Iran has no plans to respond to the most recent Israeli operations.
The ceasefire may be holding for now, but its foundations remain fragile. The underlying disputes between Iran and Israel remain unresolved, with both sides holding deep-seated grievances. The recent conflict has generated fresh geopolitical wounds, hardened nationalistic sentiments, and disrupted already-fragile regional alliances.
The core issue remains Iran's nuclear program, which was the catalyst for the crisis following covert Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Tehran views uranium enrichment as a sovereign right, and having paid a heavy price, Iranian officials are even less likely to concede now. The US, caught between Israeli pressure and Iranian defiance, has so far sidestepped addressing this core issue.
Until the nuclear issue is addressed, many believe the region will remain on a knife's edge. Tehran is reportedly preparing for a prolonged campaign of low-intensity engagement, a war of attrition fought through missile salvos, cyberattacks, and proxy operations. The message behind Iran's limited retaliation was not just restraint; it was strategic clarity: although fully allied with Israel, the US should no longer engage in the duel of these gladiators.
For now, the missiles have stopped flying, but in this region, silence is rarely peace-it is only the pause between storms.