Analysts, Observers to QNA: Legislative Snap Elections a Milestone in France History

The first round of the legislative snap elections in France are due to kick off on Sunday upon the request of the President Emmanuel Macron, following the significant victory of the far-right in the European Parliament elections over the presidential majority camp. Opinion polls have shown the progression of the lead for the right-wing National Rally party with 36 percent of voting intentions, while the left-wing New Popular Front alliance secured second place with 29 percent, with the centrist presidential coalition maintaining third place with 21percent of voting intentions, while the Republicans' party came fourth with 6.5 percent. The polls demonstrated that voter turnout is anticipated to reach between 60 percent and 64 percent, significantly higher than the 47.5 percent turnout, in the last general elections held in June 2022. Also, there are expectations that the National Rally' party, which currently holds 88 seats in the outgoing parliament, will secure more than 200 seats in the upcoming elections . The upcoming legislative elections for the French parliament were originally scheduled for 2027. However, President Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly under Article 12 of the constitution, which vests him with a sweeping power. He called for legislative snap elections after his coalition, which held 250 seats in the outgoing parliament, came under crushing defeat in the European Parliament elections held between Jun.6 and 9, 2024. Accordingly, French analysts and experts told Qatar News Agency , that these legislative snap elections are considered a milestone in the history of France since they are the first-of-its-kind to be held in France that can culminate in assuming the power by the far-right to appoint the prime minister from its side. Speaking to QNA, Head of the Opinion and Politics Department at Ipsos, and expert on public opinion and market research Stephane Zumsteeg said these legislative snap elections represent a pivotal moment in the history of the fifth French Republ ic, as for the first time the country witnesses a prime minister from the far-right. This is particularly significant given opinion polls indicating clear progress for the National Rally party over other parties. Even if this party does not manage to win an outright majority, its presence is expected to dominate the upcoming parliament, he added. Zumsteeg highlighted that overwhelming challenge is currently facing the New Popular Front on the left, as well as the presidential camp, and they must unite at the last moment based on the results of the first round, affirming that they need to form a robust barrier against the far-right so it does not win in the second round of elections and dominate the parliament. He noted that they could likewise form a unified national government against the right, in case the National Rally does not win an absolute majority in the National Assembly. What is unequivocal heretofore that the National Rally party is expected to see a significant increase in the number of deputi es following these elections, as will the case with the left-wing front whose parliamentary representation will also grow, he said, however, the greatest challenge remains for the remaining members of the presidential camp, which will suffer greatly and lose more deputies. He pointed out that their sole concern in these elections is to ensure they are not wiped off the French political map in the future, especially after their defeat in the recent European elections. For his part, Principal Investigator and equivalent to Associate Professor at the University of Aix-en-Provence, Francesco Campagnola, told QNA that these elections are not only important for France, but rather critical for democracy itself and the future of the European Union, highlighting that what happened in the Polish experience and the rise of the far-right represented by the Law and Justice party in recent years is a clear example of that, he said. He stated that the scenarios for these elections appear uncertain, as no political front may achieve an absolute parliamentary majority, highlighting that the New Popular Front, which ranks second in opinion polls, is unlikely to secure an absolute majority in the parliament after the current election rounds. This, he said, precipitates forming alliances with other progressives or even moderate right-wing parties, a complex and challenging prospect given the current political context. It is likely that voter turnout in these elections will be high, albeit the political uncertainty due to the fragility currently faced by the New Popular Front, particularly concerning the transfer of votes in the second round. There will undoubtedly be many new alliances and divisions. In this scenario, Campagnola said, it is possible that this situation could favor the far-right and the National Rally party more than others. Pierre Berthelot, a political analyst and strategic expert at the European Institute for Security and Foresight, remarked to the Qatar News Agency that the distinguishing feature of the ear ly legislative elections in France is the potential for political cohabitation between the far-right National Rally and the centrist camp of President Emmanuel Macron. This potential fourth instance of cohabitation promises to be challenging and markedly different from the previous three occurrences. Historically, cohabitation has happened twice under former President François Mitterrand with the center-right, and once under former President Jacques Chirac with a left-wing government. Berthelot noted that despite the differences in political orientation, the previous cohabitations did not face significant ideological conflicts, particularly concerning the country's foreign policy. He added that should cohabitation occur now, the ideological differences would be "fundamental" between President Macron, who staunchly supports Ukraine and seeks to strengthen ties with NATO, and the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, who oppose support for Ukraine and advocate for a long-term depar ture from NATO. Thus, if the National Rally wins the legislative elections, this cohabitation would be a "leap into the unknown." Berthelot considered that the situation is further complicated by the absence of an absolute majority in these elections, which is challenging to achieve given the three competing blocs (far-right, left, and center). This tripartite division suggests that, in the absence of an absolute majority after the second round, France could become ungovernable, as it would be difficult for two blocs to align against the third. He further explained that in this scenario, the political crisis would deepen, especially since President Macron cannot dissolve the parliament again. This situation has led some to speak of a severe political crisis in France, with the future of the Fifth French Republic appearing uncertain. The Fifth Republic was established by former President Charles de Gaulle in 1958 to ensure the stability of the country and its constitutional institutions, which were unstable du ring the Fourth Republic. Despite the political instability of the Fourth Republic, there was always a clear majority and cohabitation among the main parties, a clarity that is missing today in the current political climate. Berthelot highlighted that smaller parties, despite their limited national weight, will make a significant difference in these elections due to their strong local presence and influence. For instance, parties like "The Republicans" and "The Communist Party" dominate many municipalities across France, whereas Marine Le Pen's National Rally controls only 15 out of 35,000 municipalities. This weak grassroots presence suggests that despite polling at 35 percent, the National Rally may not necessarily achieve the majority of 289 deputies required. He cautioned that while the results of the European elections have validated the accuracy of polls, they should always be approached with skepticism. He cited the 1987 elections where polls favored President Jacques Chirac's party, yet the left unexp ectedly won, illustrating the need for cautious interpretation of polling data. Berthelot concluded his remarks to QNA by pointing out that the economic aspect was a significant weakness in Marine Le Pen's electoral program during the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections. However, she has improved this program, tapping into the fears of French citizens regarding their income, purchasing power, and the future of their children amidst rising inflation and poverty. This strategic shift has bolstered her electoral momentum and confidence in her economic platform. The French National Assembly (parliament) comprises 577 seats, including 13 overseas constituencies and 11 representing French expatriates. To secure an absolute majority, a party needs 289 seats. The first round of the legislative elections, starting tomorrow, will eliminate candidates who fail to secure 12.5 percent of the vote. Any candidate receiving 50 percent of the vote with a minimum 25 percent voter turnout wins outright. The second round on Jul y 7 will involve run-offs between two, three, or occasionally four candidates, with some candidates potentially withdrawing before July 7 to boost an ally's chances of preventing a rival's victory. Source: Qatar News Agency