Washington: US media outlets are increasingly filled with narratives drawing comparisons to historical events and depicting Israel's actions against Iran as strategic victories. These stories often highlight Israel's recent attacks on Iran's leadership and nuclear scientists amid Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's campaign in Gaza. The Western media frames these Israeli strikes as part of a larger battle against Tehran.
According to TRTworld.com, Israel, unlike other regional states, possesses nuclear weapons and benefits from advanced American military support. If the US formally intervenes in this conflict, the consequences could be more destabilizing than anticipated. Iran's regional allies within the Axis of Resistance might be activated, stretching US military resources across multiple fronts.
Sergei Markov, a Russian political analyst, suggests that while Iran is currently resisting Israeli attacks, direct US involvement could alter the balance. He notes the uncertainty surrounding the conflict, given the improbability of a US ground invasion and the potential reaction of Iranian society.
Matthew Bryza, a former US diplomat, doubts a full-scale ground invasion of Iran would occur, considering the American public's reluctance for new interventions. He anticipates targeted strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, aiming to disable its nuclear capabilities. However, experts warn that such military actions may not achieve long-term goals.
James Acton, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, expresses skepticism about the efficacy of military actions alone in delaying Iran's nuclear ambitions. If military operations fail to destabilize Iran's leadership, further tensions could arise, potentially involving hybrid attacks and blockades.
The potential for escalation involving US military bases could lead to deeper US involvement, a scenario Bryza deems a significant mistake. The Islamic Republic's core identity of resistance may drive it to escalate hostilities rather than capitulate.
In a global context already impacted by conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, a new war in Iran could have extensive repercussions. A US-led strike could disrupt global oil supplies and empower nations like Russia and China. Domestically, President Trump's Iran ambitions are causing divisions within his political base, revealing tensions between interventionist and anti-war factions.
Bryza warns that such a conflict could damage Trump's political standing, despite his confidence that his base will remain supportive. However, Markov cautions that a significant loss of American lives could provoke a backlash, challenging Trump's leadership.