In the context of talking about geopolitical risks, Associate Professor of investment risk analysis at Al al-Bayt University, Jordan, Dr. Omar Gharaibeh confirmed that the war in Sudan is another geopolitical challenge because it has disrupted economic activity and affected agriculture and trade in Sudan, and damaged the infrastructure, which made internal economic recovery difficult. The war in Sudan has also led to internal and external displacement, pressure on neighboring countries, and affected regional stability, in addition to increasing their need for humanitarian aid, which has negatively affected national and international budgets, and increased Sudan’s dependence on international support.
He added that the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip has deepened the problems of supply chains in the Red Sea, and has hit the tourism sector in the countries of the region, as a result of increasing fears of the war expanding in the Middle East.
Dr. Omar Gharaibeh stressed that all these geopolitical risks and trade tensions have greatly affected supply chains and made them one of the key global economic problems, and increased uncertainty among investors, which led to a reduction in foreign investments in the affected areas, and increased investment risks in other areas, and created humanitarian crises that led to job losses and the destruction of infrastructure, which puts pressure on the economies of these countries and leads to increased poverty. Consequently, these geopolitical risks and trade tensions have deepened the problem of inflation due to the shortage of basic materials and rising prices in many countries on the one hand, and this has been reflected on the other hand by increasing the risks of economic recession.
He pointed out that among the economic issues expected to be included on the agenda of the UNGA 79 is the increasing rates of poverty in the world, in light of the obstruction of supply chains and geopolitical risks.
He said that the issue of climate change and its impact on sustainable development is at the top of the list of issues expected to be included on the UNGA’s agenda, as it is an important issue. He indicated that achieving sustainable development requires diverse financing and innovation strategies, such as supporting renewable energy projects, whether from investors, governments, or international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and establishing investment funds specializing in sustainable environmental projects. However, financing and support for these projects is declining in light of the increasing sovereign debts of most countries in the world.
Dr. Omar Gharaibeh pointed out that the global economic growth rate will mostly remain relatively low, with significant variations between countries, as energy price inflation remains a concern, in light of expectations of rising interest rates globally. He noted that some emerging markets may witness growth if economic and political conditions improve.
In this context, specialized economic experts expect that the global economy will continue to face a set of challenges that still exist in various fields. In light of the continued geopolitical risks and resulting conflicts, trade tensions and the policy of imposing sanctions, and the obstruction of supply chains, the movement of global trade will face a set of challenges, especially in the field of food security, as food prices may remain high due to disruptions in supply chains, and there will be a need for better strategies to improve agricultural production and reduce waste. The problem of securing food remains one of the concerns facing the world and its economic institutions, despite the efforts made to enhance digital trade and logistics.
They also expected oil and gas prices to remain volatile, with the possibility of recording new increases if geopolitical tensions continue, or restrictions are imposed on supply, especially in Europe. However, these expectations remain subject to change based on global economic and political developments, which require continuous monitoring and adaptation to developments.
Source: Qatar News Agency