Doha: Qatar National Bank (QNB) has provided an analysis of the economic growth prospects for the ASEAN-6 economies in 2026, citing several factors that contribute to a positive outlook. These factors include a more stable global trade environment, reduced risks from trade protectionism, and the easing of monetary policies in both advanced economies and ASEAN-6 countries. According to Qatar News Agency, Southeast Asia has consistently been one of the most dynamic regions globally, demonstrating robust economic growth. Within this region, the ASEAN-6 countries-Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines-have been leading with rapid economic development, with Singapore achieving the status of an advanced economy. Trade plays a crucial role in the economic growth model of the ASEAN-6 nations. Disruptions in international commerce can significantly impact their economies. Initially, trade and growth forecasts showed uncertainty due to supply-chain disruptions and potential trade wars. However, the growth outlook for the ASEAN-6 group remains stable, with real GDP growth rates in 2026 expected to be strong, reflecting those of 2025. The stabilization of the global trade environment is a key factor. The U.S. has reached agreements with numerous trade partners, reducing the negative impact on ASEAN-6 countries. Notably, agreements with Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines were achieved, establishing a general tariff of 19%, with lower rates for selected goods, and a 10% levy for Singapore. These agreements have reduced uncertainty and are manageable, especially as competitors are also facing new U.S. tariffs. While the U.S. has adopted a more protectionist stance, the rest of the world is fostering integration through new trade agreements. In October, ASEAN member states signed agreements enhancing cross-border flows and upgrading the ASEAN-China Free Trade framework. Negotiations for an ASEAN-South Korea agreement have also begun. Some ASEAN-6 countries benefit from trade diversion as firms relocate supply chains from China. The impact of tariffs on ASEAN-6 economies has been minimal, with exports growing monthly between 10 to 20% in USD terms. Even with a more protectionist U.S., the global trade outlook is improving, supporting growth for the ASEAN-6 economies. Lower policy interest rates in major advanced economies and ASEAN-6 countries also create a favorable global environment for economic growth. Since 2024, the U.S. Federal Reserve has reduced its policy rate, with similar actions by the European Central Bank. These lower rates provide better financial conditions for emerging economies. Central banks in ASEAN-6 nations have implemented monetary easing cycles after controlling inflation post-Covid. Average policy rate increases were 260 basis points, above pre-Covid levels. With inflation rates reaching target ranges, central banks have begun reducing policy interest rates, enhancing credit conditions for growth. Overall, the ASEAN-6 economies are expected to m aintain stable growth due to an improved trade environment and supportive monetary policies.
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