Afghanistan: Russia has become the first country in the world to formally recognize Afghanistan's Taliban government. This move enhances the radical group's standing on the world stage and exerts pressure on the West to consider a similar stance. "This brave decision will be an example for others," stated Amir Khan Muttaqi, Afghanistan's Taliban government's foreign minister, in response to Russia's announcement of official recognition.

According to Deutsche Welle, the Afghan Foreign Ministry expressed optimism on X about this recognition marking the beginning of a "new phase of positive relations, mutual respect, and constructive engagement." The ministry also shared a video of a meeting in Kabul between Russia's ambassador to Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, and Muttaqi, where Muttaqi remarked, "Now that the process of recognition has started, Russia was ahead of everyone."

The Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in a study published in 2024, noted Russia's interest in using Afghanistan as a transit hub for exporting natural gas to India and other goods to Pakistan's ports. This ambition necessitates the construction of a gas pipeline through mountainous regions and the extension of a railroad ending at Mazar-i-Sharif near the Uzbek border.

Until now, the vision of a railroad connecting Russia to Pakistan through Central Asia and Afghanistan has remained unrealized. Completing such a project would afford Russia direct access to the Indian Ocean. A study by the consultancy SpecialEurasia, published recently, highlighted Moscow's aspirations to become a significant supplier and economic partner for Afghanistan through trade in oil, gas, and wheat, and collaboration on infrastructure, energy, and agriculture projects.

Schetter suggests that Russia aims to set a precedent in handling relations with Afghanistan, potentially influencing other authoritarian regimes to follow suit. "They want to assume a leading role among the autocratic states," he observes, noting this as a key motivation for Russia's decision.

While Russia's recognition of the Taliban is unprecedented, other countries, particularly those under authoritarian rule, have maintained relations with the Taliban. China and Iran continue to engage diplomatically, while Pakistan shares a complex but cooperative relationship with Afghanistan. Qatar has facilitated dialogue between the Taliban and the West, notably hosting the 2020 US-Taliban agreement discussions in Doha.

Schetter comments that if these countries were to emulate Russia's recognition, it would impose significant political pressure on Western states to reconsider their stance toward the Taliban. "These states would then have to consider their attitude toward the Taliban, which could create a diplomatic dynamic the Taliban now, thanks to Russia's move, are hopeful for."

The recognition of the Taliban by Russia is causing concern among Afghan women's rights activists, who fear negative implications for women and girls in Afghanistan. Shaharzad Akbar, former chairperson of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, warns that this decision normalizes the Taliban's extensive rights violations, particularly against women. "This recognition sends a signal to all countries that work against women and human rights," she asserts.

Schetter shares this concern, suggesting the international community's prioritization of Taliban recognition over human rights. Despite this bleak outlook, he holds a glimmer of hope that the Taliban might eventually restore some rights to women, albeit on their terms and not due to international pressure. For now, the Taliban may interpret Russia's recognition as endorsement of their domestic policies.