US Elections: Arab American Votes in Michigan Could Sway Presidential Race.

Michigan: While the sound of cannons and air strikes are echoing in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, the echo of those strikes is heard loudly in the United States, specifically in the most important swing state, Michigan. According to Qatar News Agency, Kamala Harris finds herself in a difficult position, between satisfying the important Arab and Muslim votes of Michigan in the electoral race and maintaining President Joe Biden's policy of supporting the war against the Gaza Strip, which increases the risk of marginalizing or alienating the votes of American Muslim voters and voters of Arab origin. Harris is trying to strike a difficult balance, following in Biden's footsteps by pledging support for the Israeli entity, saying she will always ensure that Israel has the ability to defend itself, but she has been more forceful than the president in her calls for a ceasefire. Speaking about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, she said she would not be silent. As for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, he does not hide in his statements his harsh tone against the victims of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip and recently in Lebanon. Rather, he stated on more than one occasion the necessity of continuing support for the Israeli entity's government. A new poll has revealed a "division" among Muslim voters in the United States regarding the candidates for the presidential election scheduled for next November. The poll, conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) between Aug. 25-27, indicated that a large number of voters who are dissatisfied with the position of the main candidates from both parties (Democratic and Republican) in support of the war on Gaza, are looking to options from other parties. According to the results of the first national presidential poll of Muslim-American voter preferences since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden, 29.4 percent intend to vote for Harris, putting her in a close tie with Green Party candidate Jill Stein, a "fierce critic" of the war on Gaza, who received the support of 29.1 percent of the survey sample. Only 11.2 percent of American Muslims plan to vote for Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump. While Michigan Arabs have yet to make up their minds about Joe Biden's Democratic successor, Kamala Harris, they have largely identified three main points as a bet on Donald Trump if he wants their votes in the most prominent state in the electoral race, stating more clearly that he wants an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, that he supports the two-state solution, and that there is no ban on Muslims entering the United States, in reference to the former president's ban on immigration from a number of Muslim-majority countries during his presidency. Both the Democratic and Republican camps fear that their efforts to attract Arabs and Muslims in the United States, and the people of Michigan in particular, will be in vain, and that the vote on November 5 will turn into a punitive vote in protest of the positions of the two parties and the two candidates on the situation in the Middle East, especially the war on Gaza and, more recently, the aggression on Lebanon. Observers believe that the Biden administration, despite its efforts to achieve a ceasefire, lacks the will to stop the bloodshed in the stricken Gaza Strip for a whole year, and has even obstructed more than once the issuance of UN Security Council resolutions to stop the aggression. The same applies to the position of the Republicans, represented by former President Donald Trump. The most pressing issues for Muslim voters, according to the poll, include international human rights, religious freedom, the right to health care, and hate crimes. On the foreign policy front, the Israeli aggression on Gaza is a top priority. Additionally, a poll by Emerson College and The Hill found that the economy is also a priority for about a third (31 percent) of Michigan voters, followed by immigration (13 percent), threats to democracy (12 percent), health care (10 percent), and the cost of housing, education, crime, and abortion. Assistant Professor of Comparative and International Politics at Georgetown University in Qatar Amanda Garrett said in an exclusive interview with Qatar News Agency that President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the election race less than six months before the election was a risky move. She noted however that replacing Biden with Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate was a strategic choice to increase the chances of winning, adding that Harris has a greater chance than Biden in the election race against Republican candidate Donald Trump. Regarding her expectations about how Harris' policies might differ from Biden's if she wins, Garrett noted that Harris has insisted her administration would not be a continuation of the current administration, as she belongs to a new generation of leadership that will bring a fresh approach to the White House. Garrett added that Harris is likely to continue Biden's approach in some areas, such as immig ration, where she has expressed support for Biden's recent initiatives. On the topic of rising global and regional political tensions and their impact on the US presidential election, Garrett said that in terms of foreign policy, the candidates represent extremely different camps, with Trumps campaign advocating an isolationist worldview, while Harris supports an opposing approach that strengthens US alliances. She pointed out that Trump aims to end the Ukraine war as soon as possible, whereas Harris rejects negotiations on that front. She added that recent events in the Middle East have also drawn the United States in, with the Biden administration supporting Israel and its attack on Gaza, while Trump has also promised to end this conflict as soon as possible. She noted that most American elections are not won based on foreign policy issues, as most Americans remain primarily concerned with domestic issues and will largely vote based on candidates perceived ability to address their concerns on this front. G arrett stressed that the state of the economy remains the most critical issue for American voters, who are deeply concerned about economic instability, reduced purchasing power, inflation, and rising prices, consistently ranking the economy as the top priority in polls. Regarding immigration, the second most pressing issue for voters, Garrett mentioned that there may not be a significant gap between Harris and Trump on this issue, as both candidates advocate for stronger border security, ultimately aiming to reduce the number of migrants entering the US. She added that, for Harris, this means crafting a more streamlined asylum policy to control numbers, redirecting more focus to monitoring the southern border, and even closing the border when daily crossings reach a critical threshold. For Trump meanwhile, she said it involves allocating resources to monitor the southern border, with a strong emphasis on large-scale deportations of undocumented migrants in the US. She added that although the rhetoric and ant i-immigration stance differ between the Republican and Democratic camps, their policy goals may not differ significantly. When asked about whether the ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza might mobilize American Muslim voters toward one candidate over the other, Garrett cited the latest report from the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), which confirmed that Gaza is among the top political concerns for American Muslims ahead of the upcoming election. She said that, historically, Arab and Muslim communities in the US have supported Democratic candidates, but dissatisfaction with Biden's support for Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon, along with Harris reluctance to deviate significantly from the Biden administrations foreign policy stance, could likely result in a loss of support from this voter bloc. She highlighted that Biden had already lost substantial support from this constituency before stepping aside, and Harris has so far failed to regain it. She said that support for Trump has also re mained relatively low among the Arab community (around 18%) and has not changed significantly since the Gaza crisis. She also noted that both Harris and Trump are actively courting Muslim and Arab voters in Michigan, a key swing state and home to one of the largest Arab communities in the US, where each needs the support of this crucial voting bloc. Garrett noted that Harris risks losing further support from this group if she cannot articulate a more favorable foreign policy stance that would reduce military and diplomatic support for Israel. She added that, while the Arab community in the US is not a monolithic voting bloc, supporting the Democrats may be viewed as the more pragmatic option overall, while others may consider voting for Trump, and some have suggested they might support a third-party candidate like the Green Party in protest (or simply abstain from voting altogether). She said that in all these scenarios, the Arab vote, in response to the situation in Gaza, has the potential to impact the ele ction outcome.