Geneva: The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Tuesday raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4 percent, after projecting a 0.9 percent increase in August of last year. It lowered its forecast for 2026 to 0.5 percent from 1.8 percent. According to Qatar News Agency, the latest WTO report indicates that global GDP is expected to grow by 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2.6 percent in 2026. The report highlighted that the global merchandise trade volume, measured by the average of exports and imports, expanded by 4.9 percent year-on-year in the first half of this year. The WTO attributed this performance to factors such as increased imports in North America ahead of expected higher US tariffs, slowing inflation, supportive fiscal policies, robust growth in emerging markets, and a significant rise in trade in AI-related goods. Trade between developing economies also witnessed an increase, with the value of South-South trade rising by 8 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpa ssing the 6 percent growth in overall global trade. AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, played a significant role, accounting for nearly half of total trade growth during the same period. The value of trade in these products increased by 20 percent year-on-year. At a press conference, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that despite the "severe headwinds" caused by unilateral US measures and an unprecedented rise in trade policy uncertainty, trade has shown resilience. She emphasized that this resilience confirms the existence of a foundation in the multilateral trading system that continues to function efficiently.
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